If you've been watching the Bay Area market from the sidelines for the past two years, you've probably noticed it doesn't look the same as it did in 2022 or 2023. The frenzy faded, then came back, then faded again. Here in May 2026, we're in a new chapter — and it's a chapter where strategy matters more than ever.
I'm out in the field every week — touring listings in Burlingame, writing offers in Palo Alto, sitting at open houses in San Mateo. So instead of telling you what the headlines are saying, I'll tell you what I'm actually seeing.
The State of Inventory
Inventory across the Peninsula is still well below historical averages. We're seeing roughly 30–40% fewer active listings than we did pre-2020 in most of our core cities — Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Burlingame, San Mateo, San Carlos.
Why? Two main reasons:
- Mortgage lock-in. Most Bay Area homeowners refinanced into sub-4% rates in 2020–2021. Selling means giving up that rate, and a lot of people simply won't unless they have to.
- Where do you go? Even people who want to move have a hard time finding their next home. So they stay put.
The result: when a good listing hits the market — clean, well-priced, in a desirable pocket — it gets attention fast.
What Rates Are Actually Doing
Rates have stabilized in the 6.5–7% range for most of 2026 so far. That's not the 3% buyers got used to during the pandemic, but it's also no longer the moving target it was in 2023. Stability matters because it lets buyers and sellers make plans.
Here's the thing nobody tells you: most Bay Area buyers aren't actually rate-sensitive in the way the headlines suggest. When you're putting 30–40% down on a $2M home, the rate matters, but it's not the deciding factor. The deciding factor is whether the home is the right one.
"The buyers waiting for rates to drop are competing against the buyers who already decided not to wait."
Multiple Offers Are Back
I've written offers on four homes in the last month. Three of them had between 5 and 11 competing offers. The fourth was an off-market deal I sourced through my network — and that's the only one we got into contract on.
If you're a buyer, that should tell you two things:
- The market is more competitive than the public data suggests. Days-on-market stats can be misleading because listings often go pending in under a week.
- Off-market access matters. The best deals in the Bay Area never hit Zillow.
What This Means If You're Buying
Three things matter more than ever in this market:
1. Be financially ready before you start looking
Pre-approval from a reputable local lender is non-negotiable. Sellers' agents will Google your lender, and a name they don't recognize can sink your offer.
2. Don't wait for the perfect listing
The perfect listing doesn't exist. The good listing that comes up on a Tuesday and goes pending by Friday — that's the one you need to be ready for.
3. Get a real agent in your corner
I'm biased, but the agent you choose in this market is one of the biggest financial decisions you'll make. A great agent saves you money on price, finds you homes nobody else sees, and structures offers that win without you overpaying.
What This Means If You're Selling
Sellers, this is one of the best windows in years to list. But "good market" doesn't mean "easy money." Pricing matters more than ever — overprice your home and it sits, then you chase the market down. Underprice it slightly and you generate the competition that drives the final price above what you would have asked.
Three things I tell every seller right now:
- Time it well. Spring and early summer are still peak season on the Peninsula. Listings that hit in March–June consistently outperform.
- Present it right. Professional photos, staging, and pre-inspection reports pay for themselves multiple times over.
- Price for the market, not your wishful thinking. The most expensive comp in your neighborhood isn't your ceiling — it's a data point. Let the market do the work.
If you're thinking about buying or selling in the Bay Area this year, this is the market to do it in — but only if you do it with the right strategy. I'm always happy to talk through your situation. No pressure, just a real conversation about whether the timing makes sense for you.